Possible scenario
Sanctions Bite Globally
45% Chance
The most likely path is broad compliance by dollar-clearing banks, aircraft-service vendors, travel agents, and insurers. Iranian airlines lose access to normal settlement channels outside Iran, forcing route cancellations and pushing traffic to regional competitors.
Initial impacts
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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