Possible scenario
Diplomatic Containment Works
18% Chance
Regional intermediaries press Washington to avoid a complete civilian aviation cutoff. The U.S. keeps sanctions pressure on military-linked cargo and drone logistics while granting limited licenses for passenger, medical, and religious travel.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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