Possible scenario
Costly Maritime Attrition
25% Chance
Daily tanker attacks fail to stop exports but raise insurance, crewing, and naval-escort costs. Oil still moves, yet freight markets and refiners price in a higher sustained cost of moving barrels from the Gulf.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Energy +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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