Possible scenario
Emergency Replenishment
42% Chance
The most likely path is an accelerated Pentagon and congressional effort to rebuild THAAD inventories after the Iran War drawdown. The June 2026 Lockheed THAAD award and October Hadrian production deal provide a contracting base, but appropriations and industrial capacity still determine the pace.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.7%
- Technology +0.3%
Tickers
- LMT+3.4%
- RTX+2.4%
- LHX+1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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