Possible scenario
Deterrence Gap Escalates
21% Chance
A lower THAAD inventory may encourage Iran or aligned militias to probe U.S. and Israeli defenses, especially if they believe Washington is conserving interceptors. This is a lower-probability but higher-impact path because it links a munitions shortage to renewed regional military risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +2.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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