Possible scenario
Confidence Vote Crisis
20% Chance
After two recent government collapses, the watchdog's warning increases the stakes around any use of fast-track budget powers. Opposition parties may frame the budget as either too austere or not credible enough, raising the risk of another institutional confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -2.3%
- Industrials -1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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