Possible scenario
Budget Clears Narrowly
42% Chance
The most likely path is that the government treats the fiscal watchdog's warning as political cover to keep the €43 billion package largely intact. Markets view passage as a stabilizing outcome after repeated government collapses and Scope's downgrade.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.6%
- Industrials +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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