Possible scenario
Summit Moves Forward
35% Chance
Washington secures conditional agreement from Kyiv and Moscow to pursue a trilateral format, likely after intensive back-channel work with Turkey, Germany, and the UN. The most likely outcome is a tightly managed meeting focused on cease-fire mechanics, prisoners, and humanitarian access rather than a final peace settlement.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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