Possible scenario
Russia Blocks Summit
30% Chance
Moscow uses the US proposal to restate maximalist demands, including recognition of Russian control over annexed Ukrainian regions. This is plausible because Putin has previously resisted cease-fire proposals while seeking battlefield and diplomatic leverage.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.