Possible scenario
Allies Reshape Terms
20% Chance
Ukraine and European governments do not reject the US proposal but insist that any Putin-Zelenskyy format include security guarantees, sanctions sequencing, and no recognition of annexations. This outcome reflects Zelenskyy's long-standing conditions for negotiations and European concern that Washington could concede too much process to Moscow.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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