Possible scenario
Western Support Accelerates
18% Chance
The success of the deep strike strengthens the argument in Washington and European capitals for more intelligence support, air defenses, and long-range strike supplies. This is less likely than continuation because escalation-management concerns remain strong, but Kyiv’s demonstrated capability could shift procurement urgency.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +2.1%
- Technology -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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