Possible scenario
Russian Counter-Escalation
25% Chance
Moscow answers the attack on missile plants with a heavier missile-and-drone campaign against Ukrainian power, rail, and defense-industrial sites. This path is plausible because Russia has historically paired Ukrainian deep strikes with punishment attacks on Kyiv and energy infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +2.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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