Possible scenario
Controlled Strike Cycle
45% Chance
Ukraine continues targeting Russian missile and drone production nodes while Moscow responds with additional missile salvos rather than a qualitatively new escalation. This is the most likely path because both sides have already normalized long-range attacks, and Russia’s immediate military options remain focused on air and missile retaliation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
- Energy +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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