Possible scenario
Ban Holds Quietly
45% Chance
Latvia maintains the persona non grata designation against Leonid Ragozin while providing only limited public justification, likely citing national security grounds through the Interior Ministry or State Security Service. The case remains mostly a rights-and-security controversy rather than a broader EU or NATO dispute.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.