Possible scenario
Mass Operation Approved
20% Chance
Zelensky reverses course and approves a large AI-assisted operation against Russian airport and bomber infrastructure. This would represent a material escalation from the current pause and would likely dominate risk sentiment for at least one to two sessions.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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