Possible scenario
Approval Remains Frozen
38% Chance
Zelensky continues withholding approval for the mass AI-enabled drone operation while Kyiv consults Washington and European capitals. This is the most likely path because the operation risks triggering a U.S. intelligence cutoff and could invite a Russian retaliation cycle without guaranteed strategic payoff.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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