Possible scenario
Extended Air Campaign
30% Chance
Israel continues strikes across southern Lebanon for several days, arguing Hezbollah has rebuilt positions banned under UN Resolution 1701. Hezbollah responds with calibrated rocket and drone attacks but avoids a full-scale barrage on central Israel.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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