Scenario description
Assume that by the resolution date the U.S. government imposes, activates, or directs binding limits on diesel or distillate-fuel exports in response to the dispute over European reserve releases. The measure applies to U.S. outbound diesel or distillate flows, including a ban, licensing requirement, quota, destination restriction, mandatory allocation, or other enforceable federal limit. The reported threatened full ban and the reported 120 million barrel European reserve request are context; unless official terms are published, exact restricted volumes, destination coverage, exemptions, and duration remain unavailable.