Possible scenario
Standoff Continues
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the Kremlin keeps diesel exports blocked while using the issue as leverage for sanctions relief. Trump’s envoys continue negotiations, but no enforceable mechanism emerges quickly enough to restart Russian cargoes.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Industrials -0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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