Possible scenario
Ukraine Strike Campaign Expands
20% Chance
Kyiv treats the Samara and Oryol attacks as part of a sustained deep-strike campaign against Russian fuel and drone infrastructure. Western political backing for strikes inside Russia remains intact, allowing Ukraine to keep pressure on high-value targets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Industrials +0.4%
Tickers
- RTX+0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.