Possible scenario
Russian Retaliation Escalates
25% Chance
Moscow responds to deep strikes with a larger missile and drone campaign against Ukrainian energy, logistics, and command targets. The escalation is serious but remains inside the Russia-Ukraine theater in the most likely version.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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