Possible scenario
Refining Disruption Persists
40% Chance
Ukraine continues to target Russian refining and military-drone infrastructure, but the immediate effect remains concentrated in the Volga refinery system. Russia reroutes crude and fuel flows while accepting lower utilization at damaged sites.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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