Possible scenario
PLA Pressure Campaign
30% Chance
China responds with a more visible coercive campaign to show that U.S. missiles near Taiwan will not go unanswered. The response is calibrated to avoid war but includes enough military, cyber, or economic pressure to raise market sensitivity to Taiwan-related supply-chain risk.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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