Possible scenario
Allied Buildup Expands
15% Chance
The deployment becomes the first step in a broader allied posture shift rather than a one-off exercise. Japan, Taiwan, and the United States accelerate coastal-defense plans, giving defense contractors a clearer demand signal while keeping Taiwan risk premia elevated.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.8%
- Technology -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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