Possible scenario
Elite Compromise
20% Chance
Both camps decide that an all-out constitutional fight is too costly and move toward a negotiated off-ramp. A compromise becomes plausible if business groups, church leaders, and provincial power brokers press for political calm before the 2028 succession battle.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.