Possible scenario
Conviction Advances
35% Chance
The Marcos-aligned Senate majority uses the reduced conviction threshold to push the impeachment process to a decisive vote. This is plausible if administration senators keep procedural control and frame the change as necessary to resolve the feud before the 2028 election cycle.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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