Possible scenario
Yuan Confidence Strain
25% Chance
Investors interpret the import surge as evidence that Chinese households and institutions are seeking protection from yuan depreciation and weak property returns. That reading pressures China-linked risk assets and supports safe-haven demand.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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