Possible scenario
Emergency Governance Push
35% Chance
The warning from OpenAI and Meta leaders converts AI safety from a specialist policy issue into an urgent national-security agenda. Governments avoid an outright ban but move quickly toward licensing, compute reporting, and mandatory model evaluations.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.6%
- Business Services +0.6%
- Telecommunications -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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