Possible scenario
Staged Smaller Close
28% Chance
Disruptive secures meaningful capital but below the headline $10 billion goal, reflecting LP caution after a rush into AI funds. The fund still participates in large AI rounds, but with slower pacing and tighter valuation discipline.
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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