Possible scenario
Aid Rationing Strategy
27% Chance
The administration prioritizes U.S. readiness and Pacific deterrence, forcing tighter controls on shipments to Ukraine and other partners. This outcome is plausible because the headline follows repeated warnings that U.S. inventories of missiles and interceptors have been drawn down by Ukraine support and Middle East defense operations.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
- Energy +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.