Possible scenario
Political Fallout Deepens
20% Chance
Independent MPs and crossbenchers use the attack to press for stronger protections and a calmer political culture. Debate intensifies over online threats, constituency access and whether elected officials can safely hold open public events.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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