Possible scenario
Delay Becomes Law
45% Chance
The European Parliament and Council largely accept the Commission's one-year postponement, treating it as a narrow energy-security and trade-management measure. This is the most likely path because member states remain dependent on LNG flexibility and want to avoid a confrontation with Washington over U.S. gas exports.
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
- Utilities +0.3%
- Industrials +0.1%
- Business Services +0.1%
Tickers
- VG+2.6%
- LNG+2.2%
- +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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