Possible scenario
Rate Pressure Deepens
30% Chance
A further rise in long yields keeps unrealized bond losses in focus and pushes more large-bank stocks deeper into bear-market territory. The stress remains primarily an equity and valuation issue, but it raises funding-cost and deposit-beta questions across the sector.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -3.3%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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