Possible scenario
Vance Consolidates Field
45% Chance
Vance uses the vice presidency, MAGA activist enthusiasm, and early polling strength to become the clear default choice for Republican primary voters. His 38% showing becomes a coordination signal for donors, state chairs, and Trump-aligned media figures.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Industrials +0.2%
- Technology -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.