Possible scenario
Contested MAGA Succession
25% Chance
Vance leads, but his 38% share leaves a majority of GOP voters open to another candidate. Ambitious Republicans calculate that the post-Trump coalition can be split by competence, foreign policy, electability, or donor backing.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
- Energy +0.1%
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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