Possible scenario
Opposition Backlash Builds
25% Chance
Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and independent lists portray the delay as another attempt by Abbas to avoid electoral accountability. Protests and arrests increase in the West Bank, especially where the PA crackdown on Hamas networks has already strained local politics.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.