Possible scenario
Saudi Retaliation Expands
25% Chance
Riyadh responds militarily against Houthi launch sites and weapons depots, potentially with U.S. intelligence or air-defense support. The exchange remains below direct Saudi-Iran war but raises the risk premium across energy and shipping markets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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