Possible scenario
Damage Contained Locally
40% Chance
Saudi authorities and Aramco characterize the Rabigh strike as a contained refinery incident rather than a major supply disruption. This is the most likely path because recent Houthi attacks have demonstrated reach but not necessarily sustained ability to disable multiple Saudi energy assets simultaneously.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
- Consumer Services -0.6%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.