Possible scenario
Back-Channel De-Escalation
20% Chance
Oman, the UN, and potentially Beijing press the Houthis and Riyadh to avoid a wider confrontation after attacks on several Saudi energy sites. The recent escalation creates incentives for both sides to signal restraint if Saudi damage proves manageable.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.7%
- Consumer Services +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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