Possible scenario
Stronger Tropical Hit
15% Chance
A less likely but plausible scenario is that Rachel holds together better than expected and produces tropical-storm-force gusts, heavier rain, and broader closures across San Diego and Orange counties. This would be a material regional disaster headline but still not a national crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.3%
- Utilities -1.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
- Finance -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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