Possible scenario
Rejoin Mandate Wins
35% Chance
Andy Burnham makes EU re-entry a defining plank of Labour's 2029 election campaign and wins enough parliamentary support to claim a mandate. This is plausible because his office has stopped ruling out rejoining and he has already convened a summit on long-term EU ties.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.6%
- Consumer Services +0.5%
- Industrials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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