Possible scenario
Backlash Blocks Rejoin
20% Chance
The rejoin signal triggers a powerful sovereignty backlash, with Conservatives, Reform UK and parts of the press framing the policy as a reversal of Brexit. Burnham either retreats or faces a tighter election fought on immigration, borders and democratic consent.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.3%
- Consumer Services -0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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