Possible scenario
Proxy Maritime Pressure
20% Chance
Iran could avoid direct air confrontation while using maritime pressure, drones, cyber operations and allied militias to raise costs for the United States, Israel and Gulf states. This path lets Tehran signal strength without inviting the kind of large air campaign that devastated its defenses earlier in 2026.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.4%
- Consumer Services -1.0%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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