Possible scenario
Preemptive Strike Risk
25% Chance
Israeli leaders may conclude that Iran's rebuilt air defenses shorten the window for future military action. The United States would likely try to limit escalation, but a renewed strike remains plausible if Israeli intelligence sees nuclear or missile reconstitution accelerating.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +3.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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