Possible scenario
Deterrent Stalemate
45% Chance
Iran's restored air defenses mainly serve as a deterrent rather than a trigger for immediate combat. Israel and the United States keep surveillance and strike readiness high, but avoid a new campaign while cease-fire channels through Oman and Qatar remain open.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
- XOM+0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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