Possible scenario
Police-Enforced Passage
24% Chance
The PSNI may decide that the High Court order must be enforced and move to clear the blockade. This outcome is plausible because failing to implement the ruling would invite unionist legal and political pressure, but it carries significant public-order risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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