Negotiated Stand-Down

The most likely path is a short-term de-escalation brokered by the PSNI, church figures, the Northern Ireland Office, and local representatives. The blockade gives nationalist residents leverage, while the Orange Order avoids an immediate confrontation that could revive Drumcree-era violence.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.