Possible scenario
Protracted Tigray Stalemate
25% Chance
The advance to Fatsi does not produce a decisive outcome, and the front hardens near the Eritrean border. Ethiopian federal forces, Tigrayan units, Eritrean troops, and local militias settle into a fragmented conflict that keeps northern Ethiopia unstable.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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