Possible scenario
Limited Border Stabilization
35% Chance
Federal forces and Tigrayan units consolidate around Fatsi without crossing into Eritrea, using the town as a pressure point to stop the Eritrean advance. Addis Ababa likely tries to avoid a formal interstate war while demonstrating that Eritrean forces cannot operate freely inside Tigray.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.