Possible scenario
Incremental FAA Expansion
40% Chance
The most likely path is that the FAA treats SpaceX's 456-launch request as an opening position rather than an approvable near-term operating plan. Regulators allow a phased increase after environmental review, safety data from additional test flights, and negotiated limits with local stakeholders near Boca Chica.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Technology +0.3%
Tickers
- SPCX+4.0%
- RKLB-1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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